{"title":"Zero-click search and AI buying behavior: key figures (2025–2026)","publisher":"AI Sandwich (ai-sandwich.com)","author":"Charles Gourlaouen","updated":"2026-09-24","usage":"Free to cite with attribution to AI Sandwich, https://ai-sandwich.com/research","presentation":"https://ai-sandwich.com/presentations/the-click-is-no-longer-the-conversion","methodology_note":"Much of the marketing industry's published data relies on observational panels, vendor-supplied metrics, or selected client cohorts rather than randomized causal trials. Vendor-reported figures should be treated as strong directional evidence for the shift in buyer behavior, not as universal baseline guarantees for all domains, audiences, or industries.","topics":[{"topic":"Zero-click search","findings":[{"figure":"68.01%","finding":"U.S. Google searches ending without a click, Jan–Apr 2026","source":"SparkToro / Similarweb (June 2026)"},{"figure":"58.5%","finding":"U.S. Google searches ending without a click, 2024","source":"SparkToro / Jumpshot (2019) and SparkToro–Datos (2024)"},{"figure":"50.33%","finding":"U.S. Google searches ending without a click, 2019","source":"SparkToro / Jumpshot (2019) and SparkToro–Datos (2024)"},{"figure":"32%","finding":"U.S. Google searches that still ended in a click, Jan–Apr 2026","source":"SparkToro / Similarweb (June 2026)"},{"figure":"18%","finding":"Google searches that produced an AI summary (March 2025 browsing data)","source":"Pew Research Center (July 2025)"},{"figure":"8%","finding":"Visits where a traditional link was clicked when an AI summary appeared","source":"Pew Research Center (July 2025)"},{"figure":"1%","finding":"Visits where a link inside the AI summary was clicked","source":"Pew Research Center (July 2025)"}]},{"topic":"AI answer layer","findings":[{"figure":">20%","finding":"Google searches showing an AI Overview (2026); CTR fell nearly 60% when one appeared","source":"Search Engine Land (9 June 2026)"},{"figure":"~2%","finding":"AI Mode queries that send a visitor to a website (range ~1.6–2.5%)","source":"Similarweb AI Mode referral analysis (2026)"},{"figure":"17–19%","finding":"Classic search queries that send a visitor to a website","source":"Similarweb AI Mode referral analysis (2026)"},{"figure":"1B+","finding":"Monthly users of Google AI Mode; queries more than doubled each quarter (company-reported)","source":"Google, \"A new era for AI Search\" (19 May 2026)"}]},{"topic":"AI-first buying","findings":[{"figure":"51%","finding":"B2B software buyers who begin purchase research in an AI chatbot","source":"G2 (March 2026)"},{"figure":"69%","finding":"Chose a different vendor than initially planned based on AI chatbot guidance","source":"G2 (March 2026)"},{"figure":"1 in 3","finding":"Bought from a vendor they had never heard of before the AI conversation","source":"G2 (March 2026)"},{"figure":"83%","finding":"AI-assisted buyers reporting more confidence in their final choice","source":"G2 (March 2026)"},{"figure":"35% vs 13.6%","finding":"Consumers rating AI tools vs search engines as most useful at discovery","source":"Similarweb, 2026 AI Brand Visibility Report (January 2026)"}]},{"topic":"AI citations","findings":[{"figure":"57%","finding":"Citations across eight major AI models coming from brand-owned websites","source":"Promptwatch / Petra Labs (Aug 2026); Profound (Jul 2026); Semrush (Sep 2026)"},{"figure":"69%","finding":"Google Gemini citations coming from brand-owned websites","source":"Promptwatch / Petra Labs (Aug 2026); Profound (Jul 2026); Semrush (Sep 2026)"},{"figure":"32.8%","finding":"ChatGPT citations going to product pages in July 2026, nearly double March","source":"Promptwatch / Petra Labs (Aug 2026); Profound (Jul 2026); Semrush (Sep 2026)"},{"figure":"~80%","finding":"Drop in Reddit's share of ChatGPT citations in a single week, August 2026","source":"Promptwatch / Petra Labs (Aug 2026); Profound (Jul 2026); Semrush (Sep 2026)"},{"figure":"25.6%","finding":"Overlap in cited domains between two ChatGPT reasoning modes for the same prompts","source":"Promptwatch / Petra Labs (Aug 2026); Profound (Jul 2026); Semrush (Sep 2026)"}]},{"topic":"Measurement blind spots","findings":[{"figure":"100%","finding":"TikTok, Slack, Discord and WhatsApp share visits reported as 'direct' in GA","source":"SparkToro & Really Good Data (2023)"},{"figure":"75%","finding":"Facebook Messenger share visits reported as 'direct'","source":"SparkToro & Really Good Data (2023)"},{"figure":"30%","finding":"Instagram DM share visits reported as 'direct'","source":"SparkToro & Really Good Data (2023)"}]},{"topic":"Incrementality vs attribution","findings":[{"figure":"1.53x → 0.70x","finding":"Mobile advertising: click-attributed ROAS vs incremental causal ROAS","source":"IEEE Access (March 2026), \"From Attribution to Causality in Digital Advertising\""},{"figure":"~2.00x → 0.92x","finding":"Search engine marketing: click-attributed ROAS vs incremental causal ROAS","source":"IEEE Access (March 2026), \"From Attribution to Causality in Digital Advertising\""}]}],"sources":[{"label":"Pew Research Center (July 2025)","detail":"\"Do people click on links in Google AI summaries?\" Observational analysis of 900 consenting U.S. adults' browsing behavior in March 2025."},{"label":"SparkToro / Similarweb (June 2026)","detail":"\"In 2026, Less than One Third of Google Searches Still Send a Click\" — Similarweb U.S. desktop + mobile web panel, Jan–Apr 2026. Excludes Google's mobile search app; \"zero click\" includes reformulated or abandoned searches."},{"label":"SparkToro / Jumpshot (2019) and SparkToro–Datos (2024)","detail":"Earlier zero-click panels: 50.33% (2019) and 58.5% (2024)."},{"label":"Similarweb AI Mode referral analysis (2026)","detail":"Referral on ~1.6–2.5% of AI Mode queries vs 17–19% for classic search."},{"label":"Search Engine Land (9 June 2026)","detail":"AI Overview prevalence and click-through context."},{"label":"Google, \"A new era for AI Search\" (19 May 2026)","detail":"Company-reported AI Mode usage figures."},{"label":"G2 (March 2026)","detail":"\"The Answer Economy: How AI Search Is Rewiring B2B Software Buying\" — survey of 1,076 B2B software buyers. Self-reported; directional for other B2B categories."},{"label":"Similarweb, 2026 AI Brand Visibility Report (January 2026)","detail":"Consumer panel: AI tools rated most useful at discovery by 35% vs 13.6% for search engines."},{"label":"Promptwatch / Petra Labs (Aug 2026); Profound (Jul 2026); Semrush (Sep 2026)","detail":"Reddit citation decline and product-page share; 11.8B cross-model citation analysis (57% brand-owned, 69% for Gemini); 25.6% reasoning-mode overlap. As cited by Amanda Natividad (August 2026)."},{"label":"SparkToro & Really Good Data (2023)","detail":"Dark social experiment: 1,100+ visits across 11 networks, tracked as 'direct' in Google Analytics. Plus WebKit Tracking Prevention and Google Analytics documentation."},{"label":"IEEE Access (March 2026), \"From Attribution to Causality in Digital Advertising\"","detail":"Dropbox U.S. mobile and SEM market blackout test (April 2025). Corroborated by field experiments at Facebook (Marketing Science, 2019) and eBay (Econometrica, 2015)."},{"label":"IAB/BWG \"State of Data 2024\"; DMA \"Email Benchmarking Report 2025\"","detail":"Nielsen and Litmus guidance on shifting KPIs from platform proxies to outcome influence."}]}